ABSTRACT
The construction industry has been exposed to many risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. This can be seen from project schedule delays, cost overrun, legal claims to supply chain distribution, and workforce restrictions. To this end, the purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic for the construction industry in developing countries by considering the case of the Iraqi construction industry. To achieve this, a mixed-methods approach was adopted as follows: (1) focus group session with eight construction experts to identify the risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic;(2) development of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method based on probability and impact risk matrix by considering two additional dimensions, namely Estimated Recovery Time Level (ERTL), and Expected Cost Level (ECL);and (3) survey data collection from 41 Iraqi construction experts to quantify the identified risks. Ultimately, a total of 29 risks were identified and categorized into four construction themes, namely contractual/legal implications, construction financial market, supply chain operations, and health and safety of the construction workforce. The findings show that the most significant COVID-19 pandemic risks are claims arising under a construction contract, virus spreading due to poor hygiene and lack of sanitizing stations, and contractor bankruptcy. This research offers a better understanding of the critical risks emerging from COVID-19, which can be used as a reference for researchers and industry stakeholders in planning to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic risks during the life cycle of a construction project.
ABSTRACT
The outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted construction markets worldwide due to supply chain disruptions, workforce restrictions, and legislative changes. However, construction markets in developing countries are perceived to be more vulnerable to the challenges associated with the pandemic. As such, the goal of this paper is to capture the impact of COVID-19 on construction projects in developing countries by considering the case of the Iraqi construction sector. A multistep research methodology was adopted by the authors, including (1) literature analysis and semistructured interviews with 40 industry experts to identify a comprehensive list of construction themes and factors affected by the pandemic;(2) survey data collection from 388 industry professionals to quantify the significance and influence of each identified factor;(3) Cronbach's alpha test to check the reliability of the survey;(4) fuzzy inference system to assess the impact of the pandemic on each construction theme and factor;and (5) Mann-Whitney U-test to examine the perceived impact by the public and private sectors. Results show that the pandemic has impacted a total of 16 construction factors grouped under four construction themes, including contractual implications, construction financial market, and supply chain operations, as well as safety and risk management, where the latter is the most impacted theme. The factors impacted the most by the pandemic are safety management measures, interpretation of the contract language, building materials prices, risk management practices, construction materials, construction labor, and construction subcontractors. Also, the findings of the fuzzy model show significant difference in the captured impact of the pandemic between the public and private sectors. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a foothold foundation for researchers and decision makers to enhance investigating the effect of the pandemic with its deep uncertainties in relation to developing countries. © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.